Archive for the 'Analysis' Category

Spreadsheets have been updated

Both the Free and Pro Big Moat Analysis spreadsheets have been updated to handle the changes that were made to the sites where the data is pulled from.

Please download the update to be sure that you have the most recent version of the spreadsheet.

The Pro Spreadsheet can be downloaded by logging in here: Pro Spreadsheet Download

The free spreadsheet is available for download here:  Basic Spreadsheet Download

January 2008 Big Moat Stock List Released

I have completed the January 2008 Big Moat Stock List and it is now available for you to purchase. In this version of the list I have included the usual files which are the stocks that have every one of the Big 5 Numbers over 10%, a second file that has all of the stocks where all of the Big 5 numbers except for Cash Flow over 10%, and the Risky Biz stock list that shows the stocks that only meet the criteria for 6 years instead of the full 10.

Added to this version I have included 2 year charts that have green arrows showing where you would have purchased the stock based on the Big Moat signals and red arrows that show where you would have sold the stock. This gives a great visual when examining past performance.

Existing Customers

If you have previously purchased one of the Big Moat Stock Lists, you are eligible for the current customer discount of 40% off of the price of the new list.

Click the link below if you are an existing customer. You will need to login with the email address that you used when purchasing the original list. Once logged in, you will see the Buy Now button.

New Customers

If you have not purchased one of the previous Big Moat Stock Lists now is your chance! Go to the link below and click the Buy Now button to purchase the brand new list. After your payment is received, you will be sent an email with download instructions a few minutes later.

One more thing for everyone

The archived Big Moat Stock Lists are now available for purchase as well for $17.99 each. If you are interested in reviewing previous lists for more candidates or to simply look at the performance of these stocks then this is a great value.

You can find the Buy Now buttons for these lists at the bottom of this page:

New Big Moat Stock List Released

The latest version of the Big Moat Stock List has been completed and is now available for sale! Click here to purchase the brand new list.

The list is helping a lot of people find great Big Moat Stocks, as you can see by reading the testimonials. Many people have earned several times the cost of the list by using the list to narrow down their stock picks. Don’t waste time searching for Big Moat eligible stocks because I’ve done all the work for you.

When you purchase the Big Moat Stock List, you will receive 3 PDF files that will give you the following:

  1. The list of stocks where all of the Big 5 Numbers are ALL over 10% for each of the last 10 years.
  2. The second file has a list of stocks where all of the Big 5 Numbers EXCEPT Cash Flow are over 10% for each of the last 10 years
  3. The third file is a list of Risky Biz companies. These companies have Big 5 Numbers over 10% for a minimum of the last 6 years. These companies are high flyers that don’t have a full 10 year history, like Garmin (GRMN) for example

Also included are Excel files that have the actual numeric values that were returned during the analysis of each company on the list. This can be used to create charts to view trends or to perform further analysis.

If you are a customer who have purchased a previous list, including the recent $49 promotion, click here to visit the page where you can purchase the list for the current customer discount of $80 for the $129 list. You will be prompted to enter the email address that you used when purchasing the previous Big Moat Stock List. After your email address is validated, you will be taken to the purchase page.

Free MOS Calculator to find Big Moat Stocks

I’ve had a lot of requests for a Big Moat MOS calculator over the last year and I finally put the finishing touches on the spreadsheet this week. The best thing, ITS FREE! Download it here.

If you purchase the list of Big Moat stocks, you can use the spreadsheet to get the current MOS and sticker price. This will allow you to spend more time following stocks that meet the Big Moat criteria instead of searching for stocks.

The spreadsheet was created using Excel 2003 and I haven’t done testing with earlier or later versions of Excel but I imagine that it will work fine. Please use the Contact Us form to let me know if you find that something isn’t working. I’ll do my best to answer questions but support for the spreadsheet will be limited.

DBRN: How much profit?

Following up th/e previous post on Dress Barn’s numbers, we’ll take a look at how you would have made out investing in DBRN using Big Moat entries and exits.

Start Date: 1/1/2003
End Date: 10/19/2006

# of Trades: 29
# of Winning Trades: 10
# of Losing Trades: 19

$ of Profit: $9847.20
% Return: 98.47%

Largest Single Winning Trade: $8294.52
Largest Single Losing Trade: ($2857.20)

based on an initial investment of $10,000

Big Moat Analysis: Dress Barn (DBRN)

Chico’s and Coldwater Creek are retailers that are favorites of many people looking for Big Moat companies.  Today I saw that Dress Barn was one of Nasdaq’s most active stocks so I decided to run the numbers on DBRN.

DBRN (11/28/06)

The numbers look good and the stock closed at $24.46 today which was up almost $3 on the day.  Looking at the YTD chart, the stock has been trading sideways most of the year and all three arrows are currently red.  This is definitely a stock to watch but currently not quite a buy at this time.

Continuing the Wallstrip Conversation: Google (GOOG)

Today’s stock at Wallstrip is Google so we’ll take a look at it from a Big Moat perspective. This is one company that we don’t even have to look at the Big 5 numbers to analyze: [begin analysis] All of the numbers are huge! [/end analysis] Of more interest for Google are the Margin of Safety and Sticker prices. The current stock price is approximately $460 and using the Big Moat calculator I get a sticker price of $1600 and an MOS price of $800. Look at that Google is on sale!

Google is a perfect example of a Risky Biz stock. There’s very little history and a huge upside if it continues to go up, but there is a lot of room for it to come back down. GOOG is definitely not a Big Moat stock, but one you would definitely want to consider if you’re looking for Risky Biz candidates.

Fastenal: How much profit?

Backtesting is one of those things that in a lot of cases doesn’t mean a whole lot, especially since there was no guarantee that you would have been looking at a particular stock at the time you are testing. In any case, we’ll take a look at how FAST performed if we were to make trades according to Big Moat indicators. For the purposes of our test all stock purchases or sales are made on the market open on the day after each of the indicators go green. The dates tested are January 1, 2003 – October 18, 2006 and the initial dollar amout invested is $10,000.

# of Trades: 27
# of Winning Trades: 10
# of Losing Trades: 17
$ of Profit: $1863.38
Total Return %: 18.63%

Largest Single Winning Trade: $2442.34
Largest Single Losing Trade: ($1636.04)

Continuing the Conversation: RIMM

Today’s Wallstrip converstation covers Research in Motion, the makers of Blackberry. Looking at RIMM from a Big Moat perspective, the first thing to notice is that RIMM is immediately considered a risky biz because of the lack of 10 years of history. Of all the numbers, Sales have been huge which is completely expected of a fairly new technology that is now called a Crackberry. Equity has been up and down with the most recent year being less than 10%. EPS has also been up and down over the time measured. Currently, RIMM is not considered a true Big Moat candidate, but the popularity of the technology cannot be denied so this may be a company you’re willing to invest in as part of your Risky Biz portfolio.

RIMM (green check means value > 10%, red stop sign means value < 10%)Click to view RIMM’s Big Moat Numbers full size

The 4 M’s of Fastenal: Margin of Safety

For the final post in the 4 M’s of Fastenal series, we’ll run the numbers and determine the margin of safety price for purchasing Fastenal stock. In a previous post, we’ve seen that Fastenal has a solid track record with all of the numbers except for cash flow. Looking more closely at the numbers though, we’ll see that Fastenal’s equity/BVPS has been decreasing steadily over the previous 10 years. Almost immediately, according to big-moat’s rules, this would rule out Fastenal as a Big Moat company.

After calculating the margin of safety, it looks like Fastenal has a MOS price of approximately $22 and the current price is $38.41. In this case, it looks like Mr. Market has the stock priced at full price. At this time, given the concerns over the decreasing equity and being nowhere near the MOS, Fastenal is not currently a Big Moat stock.